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It is already possible to take stock of the real estate market for this year and to outline the major trends for 2023. Will real estate prices per m2 fall in the next 12 months? Will the level of transactions be impacted by the rise in interest rates? Where will it be interesting to invest? Nexity provides an update on real estate forecasts for 2023. You’d better plan before so you won’t need to look for money, playing canadian casino site.
WHAT FUTURE FOR REAL ESTATE IN 2023?
Before drawing the outline of the real estate market in 2023, let’s take a few moments to take stock of the sector in 2022.
2022: a generally dynamic real estate market
Despite the inflationary context, the dynamics of the French real estate market remained generally good in 2022. A volume of transactions is expected to be practically similar to that of last year. 1.1 million sales could take place by the end of 2022, a level approaching the historic record for transactions in 2021.
In terms of prices, the French real estate market is again showing signs of growth: over the past year, prices have risen by 5.7% nationally on average. The real estate market in 2022 is driven by the same segments as last year: home purchases are even more popular than apartment purchases (+6.5% and +4.7% respectively). Similarly, as in 2021, urban centers no longer attract as much as rural areas. Paris, for example, saw its prices contract by 1.2% while prices in rural areas increased by 8% in twelve months.
Real estate 2023: slightly more nuanced forecasts
Growth in the French real estate market should however be more measured in 2023 compared to 2021 and 2022, both in terms of prices and in terms of transaction volumes. Sales could thus reach 950,000 sales against 1.1 million this year. Several factors are involved, in particular the inflationary shock, which increases the wait-and-see attitude of the French vis-à-vis real estate.
WILL PROPERTY PRICES DROP IN 2023?
In a climate of inflation and therefore rising interest rates, the growth of the real estate market should continue, but at a slower pace. Thus, prices should continue to rise in France in 2023. Price growth in 2023 is estimated at 3% for the whole of France. However, this general increase in prices hides great disparities.
Falling prices in Paris, a marked decline in Lille, Nantes and Bordeaux
As in 2022, price growth is likely to stall in Lille, Nantes, Bordeaux and Toulouse. They could even drop by 2% in Lyon, by 1% in both Bordeaux and Toulouse in the coming year.
Prices per m2 could also continue to fall in Paris: in 2022, the capital saw the prices of its real estate decline by 1.2%. This represents a decrease of nearly 3% compared to 2020. In 2023, this decline in Parisian prices could reach 3%, to flirt with the symbolic bar of 10,000 euros/m2 on average in September 2023, while the situation of strong oversupply is expected to continue.
An upward trend in the 50 largest cities in France
Between 2021 and 2022, prices increased by 5.4% in the 50 largest cities in France. Medium-sized cities therefore continue to do well: in 2023, they should experience increases of around 3%.
Ever more sustained growth in rural areas
Real estate in rural areas is driven by a double phenomenon:
The disaffection of cities by employees since the COVID crisis and the generalization of teleworking;
Greater financial accessibility of real estate: while inflation strains credit conditions, the more reasonable prices in these less strained areas increase the chances of property candidates to obtain their loans.
In 2023, property prices in the countryside are expected to continue on the same path as in 2022, namely an increase of 5% over the last 12 months.